At this time of the year, I am reminded about the old TV industry joke about the Devil trying to persuade someone to go to Hell. He shows him a video that makes it look like paradise - beautiful women, great food, golf courses, and luxury wherever he looks.
Sold on the great video, the man goes to Hell and immediately realizes his horrible mistake. He goes to the Devil to complain that the video showed paradise and the reality is misery and despair. The Devil smiles and says, "That was the pilot, this is the series."
Pilots are basically designed to sell a show to networks and advertisers. They throw in everything but the kitchen sink (sometimes that too), and often use directors that are not involved in subsequent episodes.
I've been analyzing television programming for more than 30 years. I’ve seen many good pilots become weak series and some lackluster pilots become excellent, long-running hits.
People are always asking me what I look for when evaluating a pilot. Here are some guidelines.
Comedies should be funny because of the characters, not the plot. Is it a one-joke show or can it be maintained as a weekly series?
I recently saw an interview with Jon Cryer, one of the stars CBS’s long-running comedy it, Two and a Half Men. He was talking about how between his success on the movie, Pretty in Pink, and his successful CBS show, he was getting a reputation as a show killer (someone who appears in a lot of pilots that either don’t get picked up or quickly become flops).
One of those failed shows, The Famous Teddy Z (1989), had one of the funniest pilots I’ve ever seen. Mr. Cryer portrayed a guy who worked in the mailroom of a major talent agency. Through a hilarious string of events he becomes the top talent agent in the company. By the second episode, however, it was a different show, and couldn't be maintained on a weekly basis.
Other funny pilots that come to mind are, The Cosby Show, Golden Girls, Cheers, Roseanne, The Big Bang Theory, and Modern Family. But I can't recall what any of them were about. They were funny because the characters were funny and compatible, not because of anything that happened in the pilot. The casts had strong chemistry, and people wanted to see them interact week after week.
The best and most successful comedies all have this in common. It's very difficult to write 15-22 strong storylines in a season. People tune in for the characters, not the plot. They're called situation comedies for a reason. People want slight variations of the same situation week after week. This is the main reason shows like Seinfeld and The Big Bang Theory can thrive in syndication and on cable, with viewers watching the same episodes over and over again.
What will a drama's third or fourth episode be like? It's relatively easy to write one compelling medical, courtroom, or police drama (well, not for me perhaps, but for seasoned television writers). We need to consider the potential strengths and charisma of both the lead and supporting characters. Is it something that can be maintained on a weekly basis? In other words, is the pilot a good one-time movie or will it make a good weekly series?
Stars don’t make shows; shows make stars. The failed TV series with major stars are too numerous to list here. In most cases, it's the show that makes the star, not the other way around - particularly for younger skewing series - think Friends, Grey's Anatomy, Mad Men, The Walking Dead, Modern Family, The Big Bang Theory, or Glee.
Some stars, such as Tom Selleck, can bring long-time fans to a show, which will but again, without a strong supporting cast, the show would not succeed. Established stars usually bring high viewer expectations, which are often hard to live up to.
Most series look better in a conference room than in your living room. I typically watch a pilot in a conference room, on a dvd sent to me by the networks or on a special website that I can watch at my leisure. There are no commercials and no distractions. When the show finally airs, of course, it will be on following some other program, opposite some other programs.
Scheduling and the competitive landscape are often just as important to a show's success as the quality of the show itself.
Most big hits are accidental. My track record of predicting new series hits and misses is pretty good. At least 9 out of 10 shows I think will flop do (it's easier to pick a miss than a hit). I'm also pretty good at predicting which new shows might win their time periods. But the big-time hits almost always come out if nowhere.
Anyone who says they predicted Friends, Law & Order, CSI, Grey's Anatomy, American Idol, Lost, Scandal, How to Get Away With Murder, The Blacklist, or Empire would be instant hits is simply lying. You just never know what's going to click with a broad spectrum of viewers. The next Modern Family, 24, or Empire is right around the corner, but we won't know it until after it debuts.
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