The trailer for CBS’s upcoming Supergirl reportedly got more than 10 million views in one week. This doesn’t really mean anything in terms of whether or not the show will succeed. The traditional press coverage of the high volume of trailer views probably has more impact than the actual online viewing itself.
Over the years, I’ve demonstrated many times that pre-season buzz has no correlation with new series success – this is particularly true for sci-fi/superhero shows, which always get the most online and comic con buzz from fanboys (and girls). One reason for this is that the pre-season online chatter comes from people who haven't even seen the pilot, so are essentially commenting on the stars attached to the show, or the genre.
Soon after the trailer came out, the pilot was leaked online. Given that the series was getting a significant amount negative speculation, it wouldn’t surprise me if it was leaked “on purpose.” Regardless, the pilot was very good, so the fact that it was leaked can only help the series. It already seems to have turned much of the pre-season noise positive. When a lot of people can say, "I've seen the pilot and I loved it, check out this link," that's a whole different type of pre-season buzz.
There are several additional factors to consider when projecting its success potential.
Other heroes who occupy the same DC Universe, The Flash and Arrow, are both successful on CW. But CW’s barometer of success is lower than CBS’s. Had either aired on CBS, and averaged the same rating (under 1.5 among adults 18-49) they might have been canceled after just a few episodes.
ABC’s Marvel Agents of Shield gets a slightly higher rating, but if not for its tie-in to The Avengers movie franchise, and Disney (ABC) owning Marvel, it would probably not have been renewed. FOX’s Gotham is the only one to generate higher than a 2 rating among adults 18-49 (and 25-54).
The Flash and Arrow both have median ages under 45, while Agents of Shield and Gotham have median ages of 48 and 49, respectively. So obviously, CBS, who’s average median age is 59, is hoping for the same. Supergirl’s median age should be slightly lower than Gotham – both have a mythology most familiar to Baby Boomers, but Supergirl is more kid and teen friendly.
It will also be interesting to see if men and boys will watch a superhero show where virtually all the main characters are women (including the main villain).
Supergirl is trying to be a combination of the breeziness, humor, and tone of The Flash and the more serious “let’s protect the world from enhanced powered people and aliens” tone of Agents of Shield. Whether it can be maintained on a weekly basis remains to be seen. It can if it doesn’t fall into the same trap as the Superman movies – namely the only real threats to her are others from Krypton or someone with kryptonite. That will get boring fast. The interactions among the regular ensemble cast will be just as important to the show’s success as the action and special effects.
It seems primed for crossovers with The Flash (less so for Arrow), and with continual references to her super powered cousin in Metropolis, an occasional sweeps appearance would certainly help. With DC’s upcoming Batman vs. Superman movie, and plans for a Justice League of America franchise, there seems to be ample opportunity for Supergirl to be part of that universe.
In a real head-scratching move, CBS will schedule Supergirl at 8pm on Monday, opposite Gotham, which will have a month and a half to re-establish its audience base before Supergirl debuts in November. This will not only limit its audience, but will further hurt it by limiting its live audience. There’s nothing worse than a low-rated series with high DVR (i.e., low commercial) viewing. Here’s hoping CBS decides to move the series to a more appropriate time period – otherwise it might not get off the ground.
With a better time period and proper promotion on similar programming, Supergirl could soar and be the under-50 hit CBS is looking for. It is primed to appeal to Baby Boomers and their kids (and grand kids).
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