Top 10 TV Audience and Research Myths and Misconceptions

In honor of David Letterman’s final month, here is my own top 10 list from the home office in Hoboken, New Jersey.

 
#10.    Millennials spend more time streaming than watching traditional TV.

 This makes for a good headline, but has no basis in reality.

 Millennials actually spend more than seven times as many hours per week watching traditional TV than watching video on the internet, multimedia devices, and smartphones combined (compared to 12 times as much for Adults 25-54).  As a group, they also DVR and fast-forward through commercials at a lower rate than older viewers.

 #9.    C3 ratings account for DVR fast-forwarding through commercials.

 Sorry.  Not true. 

 C3 ratings for most networks are higher than the live program rating.  Let’s think about this for a second.  Half the country doesn’t even have a DVR, yet we are seeing higher ratings for three days of just commercial minute viewing than for live viewing of the actual programs. This is so ridiculous on its face, that the industry should be crying out WTF!

Let's not forget that C3 was initially designed as a one or two year measure until industry post-buy systems were able to handle minute-by-minute ratings.  Nielsen did very little research into how C3 ratings should be calculated.

 #8.    Median Age can tell you which networks attract more young viewers. 

 Audience skew has nothing to do with audience size.

 Half the top-30 rated general entertainment cable networks among Adults 18-49 have median ages over 45.  Their average Adults 18-49 rating is about the same as those with median ages under 45.

 If you combined the Adult 18-49 impressions to all of the general entertainment cable networks with median ages between 35 and 45, they would add up to about the same as CBS’s Adult 18-49 audience (CBS’s average median age is approaching 60).

 
#7.    Online surveys.

 I know, let’s ask people who will take the time to answer an online survey, better yet, those who spend enough time online that they want to be in an online panel, how much time they spend online.  And then let’s assume they represent the country at large. 

 Because these types of surveys are so quick and relatively inexpensive, too many companies think that anyone can write the survey questions and analyze the results.  These surveys are only valuable if you have the right people asking the right questions.

 #6.    Pre-season buzz matters for new TV series.

 There are several reasons why pre-season buzz has virtually no impact on whether or not a program becomes successful.

 Despite the fact that much of their audience is older, the traditional press has always tended to focus on the younger and sexier programs.  It’s always fascinating to see what shows newspapers and syndicated entertainment magazines focus on, almost oblivious as to whom their own viewers or readers are.   CBS, often with the most successful new series, has traditionally received less pre-season buzz than other networks.

 Comic-con buzz is often heavily skewed toward sci-fi or super hero series, or shows with former sci-fi stars attached, and seldom have any affect on a show’s success potential.

 People who are chatting about new shows on social media before they premiere generally have not seen the pilot, and are not necessarily going to be watching the shows (even if the chat is positive) – particularly if the new show is scheduled opposite one of their favorites.  That’s different from people chatting about a show that’s already on the air that they have been watching.  That actually can provide an indication of whether a show is poised to grow or decline.

Over the past 15 years, roughly 30% of the series with the most pre-season buzz became successful – slightly lower than the average new series success rate during the same period.

#5.    Day-after recall studies.

In the 1960s and 1970s, when there were only three networks and a few independent stations, studies where you ask people if they remember seeing a given commercial in a given program might have had some value.  Not today.

Unless you know that the commercial in question is new and only aired in certain programs yesterday, there are simply too many viewing options to have any idea where viewers might have actually seen the ads. 

Several  years ago, the Cabletelevision Advertising Bureau (CAB) conducted the best recall study I've seen.  They called people while they were watching TV, asked what they were watching, asked what the last commercial was that they recalled, and then independently verified that those commercials actually ran in those programs. 

When I was at ION, I conducted a similar study through our Vision Critical panel, to compare ad recall among live and DVR viewers.  There is really no other way to get at this type of intelligence other than through near-immediate recall.  Day-after recall is an anachronism when it comes to commercials (though it still works quite well for program engagement).

#4.     Two words. Big Data.

#3.     Higher ratings lead to more ad revenue.

This is actually not the case.  Both broadcast and cable networks care much more about their ranking compared to their perceived competition than whether or not their ratings go up.

If you were to ask any broadcast network whether they would rather lose 5% of their audience next season but move into first place (because everyone else declined more) or gain 5% but slip into third or fourth place, they would all rather be in first place.  Otherwise, you'd see them advertising their programming on one another the way cable networks do so effectively.

Likewise, if you asked every cable network that currently ranks outside the top 10 among adults 18-49 and 25-54 if they would rather gain viewers and stay where they currently rank or lose viewers but move into the top 10, they would all choose the latter. This, despite the fact that generally less than half a rating point separate 20 or so cable networks.

Until the marketplace dynamics and industry perceptions that continue to make audience rankings more profitable than audience size change, we'll be analyzing rankings of continually declining audience bases.

#2.    Broadcast Networks Need to Follow the Cable Model.

If they want lower ratings, that's the way to go.  Only a handful of original scripted cable series are managing even a 1.0 rating among adults 18-49.  Even the lowest rated primetime broadcast series get more viewers than that.

#1.     Social media drives TV viewing.

I have not seen any credible research to indicate this is the case.  I would not take on face value any studies done by social media companies or Nielsen in partnership with social media companies.  TV viewing drives social media comments about those programs, but there is not yet any evidence that the reverse is true.  The average person spends about 8 minutes per day on Twitter (and 30 minutes per day on Facebook).  

Comments

[Ruth Lejarde]

Such revelations especially for an ex-media research person like myself. Gives me a lot to think about especially with our new "baby" (business startup). I'd like to give it more push and reach the right audiences.

[Steve Sternberg]

Hi Ruth -

Feel free to distribute to anyone you like. Thanks for your feedback.

Steve

[giles]

Steve,

I particularly appreciate # 10. So much bogus conversation being had.... Do you have a reference you can cite for this information, however? I'd really appreciate it.

Thanks,
G

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