Twenty years ago, with very few exceptions, four broadcast networks were the only places you could find new original scripted series programming – and basically only six or seven months out of the year (since they aired large repeat loads during non-sweeps months and throughout the summer).
This started to change in the late 1990s with the debuts of HBO’s Oz, The Sopranos, and Sex in the City, then changed for good in 2002 with the premiere of FX’s The Shield. Throughout the 2000s, many cable networks joined the fray and successfully branded and re-branded themselves with their own distinctive type of original programming. In 2013, Netflix changed the game with the release of House of Cards and Orange is the New Black, as streaming and bingeing officially became parts of the media lexicon.
This 100th issue of The Sternberg Report takes a comprehensive look at the rise of original scripted entertainment programming on ad-supported and premium cable, and how the rise of streaming services is impacting the TV landscape. For those of you who don’t want to read too much detail, here is an executive summary:
Executive Summary
Pre-2002: HBO and Showtime, were the only places besides the broadcast networks to find any original scripted series. In the late 1990s/early 2000s, when prison drama Oz (1997-2003), mob family drama The Sopranos (1999-2007), and comedy-dramas The Larry Sanders Show (1992-1998) and Sex and the City (1998-2004), aired on HBO, the broadcast networks’ exclusive grip on original scripted series started to loosen for the first time. These shows elevated scripted series beyond anything the broadcast networks were capable of doing (restrained as they were by advertiser concerns regarding language, sexual content, and violence). They changed the perception of what was possible on the small screen.
2002: Cable started to demonstrate that the broadcast networks were no longer the only ad-supported game in town for original scripted series. Not only could they air programming that would never fly on a broadcast network, but advertisers would accept edgier content (as long as it was accompanied by good ratings or critical acclaim). Broadcast and cable were still thought of as distinctly different media by both viewers and advertisers.
- In March 2002, ad-supported television changed forever when FX debuted The Shield, a gritty drama about rogue LAPD cops. The network had previously focused primarily on off-network repeats from its 20th Century Fox parent company, such as NYPD Blue and The X-Files. The Shield broke many long-standing conventions and led to a gradual increase in edgier original cable dramas. A decade earlier, Steven Bochco famously said he intended ABC’s NYPD Blue to be television’s first R-rated series. The Shield, with its gritty portrayal of corrupt cops, really was. It employed content and language never before seen on ad-supported television.
- Between 2002 and 2006, 64% of all the new scripted ad-supported cable series ran for five or more seasons, and only 9% were canceled after just one season.
2003: Original scripted series on ad-supported cable were not yet widespread. But there were a a couple of notable successes. FX’s reputation for gritty drama too intense for broadcast television was further cemented in July 2003, with the premiere of Ryan Murphy’s Nip/Tuck, a dark comedy-drama about two very different partners in a Miami plastic surgery practice. It ran for six seasons. Syfy had one of the best original sci-fi dramas off all time with Battlestar Galactica (a re-imagined update of the 1978/79 TV series), which began as a miniseries in December 2003 and quickly went to weekly series (ending its successful run in March 2009).
2004-2006: Only a few cable networks were airing original scripted series, but production started to grow. FX continued to develop high-quality and edgy content, TNT and Freeform entered the scripted drama arena with strong series debuts, USA premiered one of its longest-running hits, TBS entered the comedy fray, and AMC got its feet wet with a successful miniseries.
2007-2011: This was the five-year cable boom, when ad-supported cable networks really start ramping up production of original scripted series. AMC developed several groundbreaking series. FX, TNT, and USA debuted some of the longest running hits on television, each with its network’s own distinctive branding. Freeform started its string of one successful new young-women-appeal series a year, and several other cable nets developed new signature shows.
- In 2007, there were an unprecedented 13 new scripted series on nine different ad-supported cable networks. This grew sharply over the next few years.
- In 2010, in addition to AMC premiering the highest rated program on television, we also saw the debut of TNT’s highest rated show, Freeform’s highest rated show, USA’s highest rated show, TV Land’s highest rated show, and UpTV’s longest running show.
- In 2011, there was a surge in the number of new ad-supported cable series, with an all-time high 28 (17 dramas, 11 comedies) premiering on 15 different networks. Overall, by 2011, there were 57 original scripted series on 18 ad-supported cable networks, and 22 series on premium cable (20 on HBO and Showtime).
- Between 2007 and 2013, as original cable series started to become more prominent, one-third of new ad-supported cable series aired for at least five seasons, while only 19% lasted just one season. Some of cable’s most successful series premiered during this period.
- Major ad-supported cable successes between 2007 and 2011 included, AMC – Mad Men, Breaking Bad, The Walking Dead, Hell on Wheels; Freeform – Secret Life of the American Teenager, Pretty Little Liars; FX – Sons of Anarchy Justified, Louie, American Horror Story; SyFy – Warehouse 13, Haven; TBS – Tyler Perry’s House of Pain, Meet the Browns; TNT – Saving Grace, Leverage, Southland, Rizzoli & Isles, Falling Skies; USA – Burn Notice, In Plain Sight, Royal Pains, White Collar, Covert Affairs; BET – The Game; ION – Flashpoint; Lifetime – Army Wives; MTV – Teen Wolf; TV Land – Hot in Cleveland; UpTV – Heartland.
Premium cable took a back seat for much of this time, at least as far as new series go. But they started to thrive again in 2011, as HBO premiered one and Showtime debuted two of their longest-running and most popular series. Starz and Cinemax started trying to compete with HBO and Showtime during this period as well.
With several of HBO’s major hits having recently ended – Sex in the City (2004), Six Feet Under (2005), or about to end – The Sopranos (2007), The Wire (2008), the network took a little while to get revved up again, although it did develop three of its strongest series between 2007 and 2011 – True Blood, Game of Thrones, and Boardwalk Empire. Showtime started to move into HBO’s league as it generated a string of successful comedies and dramas during this five-year period, including a handful of the most popular and longest-running series on premium cable – Californication, Nurse Jackie, Shameless, and Homeland. Starz had its first major scripted hit with Spartacus. Cinemax aired Strike Back, which became its longest-running original series.
2012: The saturation of strong cable series starts to take its toll on new show performance. Half of all the new scripted series debuting on ad-supported cable in 2012 lasted two seasons or less. The only major hit this year was TNT’s Major Crimes, which was a spin-off of The Closer. Even FX and USA, which had been hit machines, did not have a successful new show.
HBO and Showtime continued to generate hits. HBO premiered Veep and Girls, while Showtime came up with House of Lies.
Netflix and Hulu aired their first scripted series. Netflix debuted the Norwegian-American comedy-drama, Lilyhammer, which ran for three seasons, while Hulu tried a mockumentary comedy-drama, Battleground, which only lasted one season.
2013: This was a watershed year for what would soon be called “Peak TV.” There were more original scripted series premieres on more ad-supported cable networks than ever before, many of them quite successful (although most were unable to generate the blockbuster ratings that hits from previous years enjoyed). A&E, Audience, BBCA, BET, Freeform, FX, Hallmark, History, Lifetime, and OWN, all had major hits. Overall, there were 26 new series on 17 ad-supported cable networks, and 17 of them (65%) lasted at least three seasons.
Ad-supported cable successes included, Bates Motel (A&E), Orphan Black (BBCA), Being Mary Jane (BET), The Fosters (Freeform), The Americans (FX), Cedar Cove (Hallmark), Vikings (History), Devious Maids (Lifetime), and Tyler Perry’s For Better or Worse (OWN).
There were also more than a dozen premium cable dramas on the air, including new hits from Showtime (Ray Donovan, Masters of Sex) and Cinemax (Banshee).
Netflix debuted its first two original scripted series (House of Cards, Orange is the New Black), both hits, dropping a full season of episodes at once (officially making “streaming” and “bingeing” part of the media lexicon). Amazon Prime Video (the short-lived Beta and Alpha House) and Hulu (East Los High) also debuted their first original scripted series.
2014-2016: Original content continues to rise as cable ratings slide. Using my definition of success as new series lasting at least three seasons, this three-year period had many successful ad-supported cable series. Of 100 new original scripted shows, 57 fit that category. But even so, average ratings during this time started to decline. There are basically three reasons for this. New shows, while performing well enough to be renewed, did not do as well as their predecessors (partly because there were already so many popular series on the air). At the same time, hit shows that had been on for several years, naturally started to decline. The continued proliferation of strong premium cable series and the advent of streaming services contributed to siphoning viewers from ad-supported cable (just as cable had been doing for years to the broadcast networks).
- 2014 was a strong year for premium cable, as HBO and Showtime each had more than one new hit, and Starz had several major original series successes. In fact, 9 of the 10 new series to debut on premium cable in 2014 were hits. On the streaming front, Netflix had a couple of new successful dramas, and Amazon Prime Video debuted some of its strongest shows.
- More than 20 new dramas debuted on a dozen ad-supported cable networks in 2015, including some long-running and some short-lived entries. There were also an unprecedented 10 new ad-supported cable comedies. Overall, more than half the new series lasted at least three seasons. On the premium cable front, only one of the five new entries was successful (the fewest new series in years). This is also the year when Amazon Prime Video started making a real effort to compete with Netflix, and put on some high-quality original scripted dramas. It also marked the year when Netflix made its successful, but too-short foray into the Marvel universe. Netflix debuted a couple of its most successful comedies in 2015.
- In 2016, a record 28 original scripted dramas premiered on 10 different ad-supported cable networks. Fifteen lasted at least three seasons. Eight of the 13 new comedies lasted at least three seasons (four of them on TBS). Only half of premium cable’s 12 new series worked (saturation and streaming services were starting to take their toll here as well.) Premium cable network Epix aired its first original scripted drama in 2016. Netflix continued to spend big – it premiered 20 new series, including three of its most popular dramas. Amazon Prime Video debuted one of its more popular dramas and one of its most critically acclaimed comedies.
Major ad-supported cable successes during this three-year period included, AMC – Better Call Saul, Fear the Walking Dead, Into the Badlands; FX – Fargo, American Crime Story, Atlanta; TBS – Angie Tribeca, Search Party; TNT – The Last Ship, The Librarians, Animal Kingdom; USA – Mr. Robot, Queen of the South; Hallmark – When Calls the Heart, The Good Witch, Chesapeake Shores; OWN – Greenleaf, Queen Sugar; TV Land – Younger.
There were a few new successful premium cable series, most notably, HBO – Ballers, Westworld, Insecure; Showtime – The Affair, Billions; Starz – Black Sails, Power, Outlander.
This is when Netflix started ramping up its programming investment and became a major force in the television industry, spending about $5 billion on original content in 2016 (a figure that would grow substantially in subsequent years). Here are just some of the more popular new original scripted series the streamer dropped during these three years: Peaky Blinders, The Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt, Marvel’s Daredevil, Jessica Jones, and Luke Cage, Grace & Frankie, Narcos, Fuller House, Stranger Things, Black Mirror, and The Crown.
Amazon Prime Video did not have anywhere near the volume of Netflix programming from 2014-2016, but several of its new original series were quite successful – Bosch, Transparent, Mozart in the Jungle, The Man in the High Castle, Sneaky Pete, and Goliath.
Hulu had some original content between 2014 and 2016, but it wasn’t competitive with Netflix or Amazon Prime Video. At this time, it was concentrating more on its library content and showing network series from its then owners (Disney/ABC, Comcast/NBC, Fox, and Time Warner/CW) soon after their broadcast runs.
2017-2019: The streaming wars really started to take shape. Netflix, Amazon Prime Video, and Hulu each debuted several of their most popular series. In September 2017, CBS All Access joined the mix with a couple of strong debuts. In November 2019, Apple TV+ and Disney+ went live, and both established themselves with signature programming.
There were lots of new ad-supported cable series, but relatively few successes. And those that did work didn’t perform nearly as well as previous hits. Premium cable networks, HBO, Showtime, and Starz, continued to thrive.
- 2017 was a strong volume year for new ad-supported cable series, but not in terms of ratings. On one hand, FX had four new successful entries, while AMC, Audience, BET, Freeform, Nat Geo, History, IFC, TNT, and USA each had new shows that performed well. On the other hand, out of 26 new series across 19 cable networks, two-thirds (18) lasted less than three seasons. On the premium cable front, HBO and Starz had new hits. Netflix, Amazon Prime Video, Hulu, and CBS All Access each had major new success stories.
- 2018 was a high-volume year for original scripted series on ad-supported cable, as more than 30 premiered on 18 different networks. But more than 70% of new shows lasted less than three seasons (23 out of 32). There were also a few high-profile and popular premium cable dramas premiering in 2018, as well as several strong entries on the streaming front. Spending on original content on streaming services continued to reach new heights.
- In 2019, streaming services, particularly Netflix, continued to spend tremendous sums money on new programming, and it paid off. Netflix reportedly spent more than $15 billion on original content in 2019, compared to roughly $6 billion for Amazon Prime Video, $2.5 billion for Hulu, and $800 million for CBS All Access. Disney+ reportedly had a budget of $1.5 - 2 billion going into 2020, but that should grow substantially in the next few years as it revs up numerous Star Wars and Marvel original series. Apple TV+, without the big library archives enjoyed by some of its competitors, reportedly has a $6 billion annual original content budget.
In addition to five of Netflix’s most popular dramas premiering in 2019, it introduced more than a dozen new comedies, including some of its biggest fan favorites. Amazon Prime Video (with 13 new series), Hulu, and CBS All Access all had some major successes, as did Apple TV+ and Disney+, both of which launched in November.
It was also a strong year for HBO, as several strong post Game of Thrones dramas emerged. It was a mixed bag for ad-supported cable – of the 22 new regular series on 14 cable networks, half (11) have already been canceled, and 8 (36%) lasted just a single season. For the first time in nearly two decades, except for FX, there were no new scripted original series on ad-supported cable that I would call a major hit.
There were some new ad-supported series between 2017 and 2019 that performed well, but fewer than in previous seasons: Freeform – The Bold Type; FX – Legion, Snowfall, Pose, Mayans M.C. What We Do In The Shadows, as well as two miniseries, Feud: Bette & Joan and Fosse/Verdon; TBS – The Last O.G.; TNT – Claws; USA – The Sinner; BBCA – Killing Eve; IFC – Brockmire; Nat Geo – Genius; OWN – David Makes Man; Paramount – Yellowstone.
It might have been a relatively weak three-year period for ad-supported cable, but not so for HBO, as it came up with one new hit after another, appealing to a wide spectrum of viewers. These included, Big Little Lies, The Deuce, Barry, Succession, Euphoria, Chernobyl, Watchmen, and His Dark Materials. Showtime had neither the quantity nor quality to match HBO during this period, but it did manage to come up with a few successful series of its own – The Chi, Escape at Dannemora (miniseries), Black Monday, The L Word: Generation Q – as well as many that did not work. This was a good three-year period for Starz, as it developed at least one new success each season, including, American Gods, Counterpart, Vida, The Spanish Princess.
From 2017-2019, Netflix enjoyed a surge in spending, a surge in hits, and a surge in viewership, further solidifying its position as the dominant streaming service worldwide and in the U.S. Key series premieres included, One Day at a Time, Santa Clarita Diet, 13 Reasons Why, Dear White People, GLOW, Ozark, Mindhunter, Dark, Altered Carbon, Lost in Space, Bodyguard, The Chilling Adventures of Sabrina, The Kominsky Method, Narcos: Mexico, Sex Education, The Umbrella Academy, Russian Doll, Dead to Me, Lucifer, When They See Us (miniseries), Money Heist, Virgin River, and The Witcher.
Between 2017 and 2019 Amazon Prime Video, while still not matching Netflix’s volume, did premiere several hit series of its own as it ramped up its program development to better compete in the streaming wars. It also had several entries that were canceled after a single season. Its successes included, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel, Absentia, Tom Clancy’s Jack Ryan, Homecoming, Hanna, The Boys, Carnival Row, Modern Love, and The Expanse.
Hulu released a number of its most popular original series between 2017 and 2019. Those included, Harlots, The Handmaid’s Tale, Marvel’s Runaways, Futureman, The Looming Tower (miniseries), PEN15, Shrill, and Ramy.
CBS All Access launched its first three original scripted series in 2017. All were successful. It’s been a mixed bag since then, as new series have not been a major focus (its initial series are still performing well after multiple seasons). Its key new series during this time were, The Good Fight, Star Trek: Discovery, No Activity, The Twilight Zone, and Why Women Kill.
Apple TV+ launched in November 2019 with a new comedy and five new dramas (adding a sixth in December), and has quickly built a reputation for quality series and movies, as well as drawing major stars. The key 2019 successes were, The Morning Show and For All Mankind.
Disney+ also launched in November 2019. Its first original production was a hit. Star Wars spin-off, The Mandalorian, is one of the most popular series in the streaming world.
2020-2021: The era of Peak TV+. When it comes to streaming, it is no longer just a Netflix world, although it does still lead the way with an original content budget that continues to dwarf its competitors. It debuted more original series and more successful series in 2020 than all other streaming services combined.
But Amazon Prime Video and Hulu are no slouches, and CBS All Access continues to grow (and is now the place for all things Star Trek) – ViacomCBS is expanding the streaming service and changing its name to Paramount+. Disney+ has joined the fray with its massive library of family favorites as well as popular franchises such as PIXAR, Star Wars, Marvel (the latter two will have multiple new live-action series debuting over the next couple of years). Apple TV+ has some high-quality new series and movies of its own and is increasing its spending on new product. May 2020 saw the debut of AT&T/WarnerMedia’s HBO Max (with some strong performances out of the gate) and July brought us Comcast/NBC Universal’s ad-supported Peacock (named after the NBC logo).
Disney+ and HBO Max are starting to emerge as major forces, and currently seem to be the biggest threats to Netflix’s dominance. The former’s upcoming focus on Star Wars and Marvel programming will certainly draw many new subscribers, as will the latter’s pandemic-related decision to debut all of its 2021 theatrical releases simultaneously on its streaming service. While WarnerMedia claimed its Wonder Woman 1984 “broke records and exceeded our expectations,” it did not release specific subscriber data. The streaming service measurement and analytics firm, Antenna, did say that during the movie’s first three days of release, HBO Max registered more new sign-ups than any other streaming service has recorded during any other three-day period over the past year.
In March 2020, FX on Hulu launched – 17 of FX’s legacy content of comedies, dramas, and limited series were made available to stream on Hulu, and certain new series will premiere on FX before becoming available on Hulu the next day – a few FX series are scheduled to premiere and live exclusively on Hulu. Comedy Central has become a testing ground for HBO Max, as several of its new series are moving their second seasons to the streaming service (HBO Max already made a lucrative, exclusive deal for all 23 seasons of the Comedy Central hit, South Park).
Elsewhere on the ad-supported cable front: AMC extended its Walking Dead franchise; BET debuted two new Tyler Perry comedies. Not much else was happening among most cable networks in 2020.
Three of Showtime’s most popular and longest running series, Shameless, Ray Donovan, and Homeland, had their series finales this year. HBO and Starz each had some new success stories.
The COVID-19 pandemic has caused TV schedules to be in flux and production schedules to be on pause. Netflix, which had many shows already in the pipeline, was best positioned to temporarily withstand production delays. But there is still a chance that some shows already renewed might be “unrenewed,” and others could have delayed start dates.
Here are some of the new series successes in 2020:
AMC: The Walking Dead: World Beyond
BET: Tyler Perry’s Ruthless, Twenties
Comedy Central: Awkwafina is Nora From Queens
TNT: Snowpiercer
HBO: The Plot Against America (miniseries), I Know This Much is True (miniseries), Perry Mason, The Undoing (miniseries), Industry
Showtime: The Good Lord Bird (miniseries), Your Honor (miniseries).
Starz: Hightown, P-Valley, Power Book II: Ghost
Netflix: Ragnarok, Locke & Key, Gentefied, Self Made (miniseries), blackAF, Never Have I Ever, Hollywood (miniseries), Space Force, Sweet Magnolias, Warrior Nun, Ratched, The Queen’s Gambit, Emily in Paris, Selena: The Series, Alice in Borderland, Bridgerton
Amazon Prime Video: Hunters, Upload, The Wilds
Hulu: Endlings, Little Fires Everywhere (miniseries), The Great, Love, Victor, Woke
FX on Hulu: Devs, Mrs. America (miniseries), A Teacher (miniseries)
CBS All Access: Star Trek: Picard, The Stand (miniseries)
Apple TV+: Little America, Mythic Quest: Raven’s Banquet, Home Before Dark, Defending Jacob (miniseries), Ted Lasso, Tehran
Disney+: The Right Stuff
HBO Max: Love Life, Search Party, Raised by Wolves, The Flight Attendant
Peacock: The Capture, Code 404, Saved by the Bell