The mortality rate of new broadcast series is higher than ever. Only 21% of the primetime scripted series premiering over the past five years will still be on the air during the 2022-23 season (36 out of 169) – 23% of the fall series (17 out of 73) and 20% of the mid-season shows (19 out of 96). If we take out the spin-offs, reboots, and franchise extensions, the total percent still on the air becomes just 17% (24 out of 139).
I haven’t seen all of the new broadcast primetime TV series pilots yet, but I can predict with virtually 100% certainty that broadcast network audiences will decline next season and most new series will flop. But it doesn’t have to be that way.
We have the laws of physics, the law of gravity, the law of large numbers, the law of diminishing returns, the law of supply and demand, even the law of averages. But despite the fact that broadcast ratings decline virtually every season, there’s no actual law of declining ratings that I could find. So I’ll posit one. As more viewing options become available, most returning TV shows will lose viewers, and it will take longer for potential viewers to become aware of new shows. Corollary 1: The only way to stem the tide of network audience erosion is to promote both new and established series on TV shows that appeal to similar viewers – regardless of the network or platform. Corollary 2: The likelihood that network TV audiences will decline form one year to the next is directly related to how much that network prioritizes rankings over ratings.
It’s not that the networks aren’t capable of creating hits anymore, it’s just that there are so many choices out there, television viewers no longer have to watch the “least objectionable programming,” a term probably unfamiliar to anyone under 35.
There are actually more high-quality shows on television than ever before. The most popular ones seem to be on streaming services. It seems that way because the press headlines, social media chatter, industry “buzz” tell us so. Are Stranger Things or Squid Game really more popular than NCIS or Chicago Fire? Have more people seen The Flight Attendant this season than Young Sheldon? Of course not.
In reality, we have no idea how many people are watching any individual show on streaming platforms – Nielsen’s sample is not representative of streaming subscriptions, nor do they measure all streaming services, nor do they measure streaming beyond the television set. Whatever limited data is currently provided by streamers is not using the same metrics as Nielsen (or one another). So, we really do not have any valid ongoing comparisons between linear TV viewing and streaming using the same metrics or time frame. But we do know that broadcast ratings tend to decline every season. Streaming series may as well, but we just don’t see the data.
The New TV Season is Not as Relevant as It Used to Be
Prior to the early 2000s, the new fall TV season was one of the few entertainment topics discussed throughout the summer on syndicated TV shows such as Entertainment Tonight, Extra, and Access Hollywood, and print magazines such as People, Us, and Entertainment Weekly. The broadcast networks aired mostly repeats during the summer months, and cable networks contained mostly off-network reruns and reality. Except for the occasional movie blockbuster or celebrity scandal, there wasn’t much else for the entertainment press to focus on. That was before original scripted series started proliferating on cable networks during the summer months, and before the average TV home subscribed to at least three streaming services. With new original scripted series available to viewers on multiple platforms year-round, the new broadcast TV season simply doesn’t generate as much press or viewer excitement as it once did.
New Series Promotion is More Important but Less Effectve Than Ever
There are so many good shows on so many different venues and platforms, both ad-supported and not, even top-notch new shows can slip through the cracks if they aren’t effectively promoted. Part of the problem promoting a new season that begins in September is that shows that air in the summer tend to appeal to different audiences than those that air in the fall. It wasn’t a problem several years ago, when the summer consisted largely of broadcast repeats of regular series (which did generally appeal to the same viewers as in the fall, albeit fewer of them). Today, the broadcast network summer schedules are filled with game shows, reality, and limited-run series – not necessarily the audience for the new fall scripted series. While on-air promos are still the best way to create awareness for new shows such as Alaska (ABC), East New York (CBS), Lopez vs. Lopez (NBC), Monarch (FOX), and Gotham Knights (CW), they are not maximizing their potential target reach by being promoted in Celebrity Family Feud (ABC), Love Island (CBS), American Ninja Warrior (NBC), and Lego Masters (FOX).
My wife and I watch a significant amount of broadcast television during the fall and winter, but very little in the summer. For us, summer is the time to find new streaming shows to binge. Or, if we’ve heard good things about a linear TV series we haven’t seen, we’ll catch up with it on whatever on-demand platform it’s on. This is becoming the case for more and more people across the country, and not just younger viewers.
The broadcast networks still adhere to fall and spring seasons with program lineups, with weekly episodes targeted to largely similar audiences – unlike a streaming service, where shows that appeal to substantially different viewers can thrive side-by-side. Netflix, for example, can put on Stranger Things, Money Heist, BoJack Horsemen, The Crown, Grace & Frankie, The Umbrella Academy, and Bridgerton, at the same time without being concerned about audience flow or cohesive nightly lineups. Ad-supported cable networks do have seasons (or at least air weekly episodes), but are not as reliant as broadcast networks on premiere dates, lead-ins, or having similar programming across their schedules. They also often repeat primetime episodes either immediately following the first run or during late night.
The broadcast network structure makes promoting a new show that doesn’t fit in with that network’s typical audience much more difficult, particularly if it is restricted to its own air. A prime example is the upcoming Monarch, a multi-generational family drama about a country-music dynasty (with Susan Sarandon, Trace Adkins, and Anna Friel) set to debut on Fox this fall. The only problem is that it is not similar to any other current Fox show. But it should appeal to many regular CBS viewers. If the broadcast networks finally see the light and start cross-promoting one another’s programming, Monarch will advertise in shows such as CBS’s Bob Hearts Abishola, Young Sheldon, Blue Bloods, and NCIS, and most likely become a success (or at the very least get a strong viewer sampling). If the broadcasters continue to live in the 1980s, seeing only each other as competition, and stubbornly refuse to cross-promote one another’s shows, then a series like Monarch might not get the viewer sampling it needs to become successful.
Do Fall or Mid-Season Shows Have a Better Chance to Succeed?
Theoretically, a new mid-season series has an advantage over one that debuts in the fall when it comes to promotion. Shows that premiere in September are competing for awareness with several other new series debuting over the same two- or three-week period. And these shows are promoted during the summer, when program schedules and viewing habits are substantially different than in the fall. Of course, there is only an advantage for mid-season shows if thee broadcast networks start cross-promoting. Broadcast shows that debut mid-season (usually January – May) are able to advertise in established first-run series – a big plus if you take advantage of all the programming on all the networks that reach the precise audience your new show is targeting. Otherwise, as is often the case with ineffectively promoted broadcast shows, they will get lost in the shuffle – people are used to sampling new series in the fall, since so many debut at around the same time. By mid-season, viewing patterns are more established, so without cross-promotion it’s easy for a new show to slip through the cracks – unless it’s a brand extension of a successful franchise.
Of the current top-30 rated scripted shows among adults 18-49, for example, less than one-third (9) debuted in mid-season. More than half of those (5) were spin-offs or franchise extensions – which already had built-in audiences, and did not need extensive promotion to become hits.
Who remembers these excellent but short-lived mid-season series – For the People, Whiskey Cavalier, Tommy, Deputy, Debris, and Rebel – shows that most people probably never heard of. All victims of network stubbornness to not promote their product to the largest chunk of available target consumers – namely viewers who are watching similar programs, regardless of the network.
Keeping Viewers Tuned to Broadcast Television
Viewers don’t think in terms of ABC vs. CBS vs. NBC vs. FOX anymore. Only network executives still think that way. It is essential for the broadcast networks to finally understand that keeping viewers tuned to any broadcast network is the best way to keep them in the broadcast arena and get them to switch over to their programming. Once they go to other platforms, it’s much harder to lure them back. And while the broadcasters still refuse to take ads from each other, they gladly accept them from their real competitors, premium cable networks and streaming services.
Ad-supported cable networks long ago figured out the best way to increase viewership is to cross-promote one another’s programming. They also understand that it doesn’t really hurt them if other cable networks do the same. If everyone gains viewers, more advertising dollars shift from broadcast to cable, and everyone eventually benefits. Streaming services quickly realized that the best way to get viewers and new subscribers is to advertise where the most viewers still congregate – the broadcast networks. Yet while the broadcast networks constantly sell broadcast television to advertisers as the best place to reach large chunks of target viewers at one time, they still don’t seem to believe it when it comes to their own product.
Prioritizing Rankings Over Ratings: Short-Term Gain, Long-Term Decline
The networks and the press have long considered program rankings far more important than actual ratings. I still cringe when I see an article that talks about how well a program performed, winning its time period with a 0.4 rating among Adults 18-49. This low a first-place rating should be a cause for alarm, not celebration.
The upfront is designed to reward rankings over ratings, and enables the networks to continually raise prices for shrinking audiences. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, if you gave broadcast network executives a choice between growing their audience by 10% but slipping from first to second place, or losing 10% of their audience but moving up in the standings (because other networks declined by more), they would uniformly pick the latter. This is probably one of the main reasons the broadcast networks stubbornly refuse to cross-promote their shows. They’d rather hurt the other networks than see everyone improve (and potentially see another network gain more viewers). Why else would NBC schedule its new American Song Contest opposite ABC’s popular American Idol? They couldn’t possibly have thought it would attract more viewers. But they might have thought it could hurt one of ABC’s stronger shows, and maybe they could inch up in the standings.
I led research departments at major ad agency groups for more than 30 years, and while media buyers would often ask for program or network ranking reports, I can’t recall many instances where anyone asked if a show or network’s ratings were up or down from the previous season. If I was putting together a ranker chart for a presentation, I was never asked to include the actual ratings (in fact, I was usually asked not to).
For the larger cable networks, ranking among the top 10 matters more than growing their audience. I worked at a cable network where even though our average rating was up from the previous year, we slipped from 10th to 11th place among cable networks for adults 25-54. This was considered a disaster. The fact that only three-tenths of a rating point separated the 3rd and 20th place cable networks was not relevant. The following season, our average rating was unchanged, but we had managed to climb to 8th place (because other networks declined). Celebration time.
Given how the marketplace has traditionally functioned, higher rankings do lead to short-term success and profitability. But focusing on rankings at the expense of audience growth also leads to long-term erosion and drives viewers to other platforms, many of whom may not return.
Networks Stop Promoting New Shows Too Soon
While the broadcast networks heavily promote their new fall shows over the summer and during premiere week, they tend to cut back on these efforts way too soon. It usually takes three to five weeks for a new show to settle into its final ratings range. And in the era of Peak TV+, it takes viewers longer than ever to even become aware of a new show much less start watching it. I’m still discovering shows to watch on Netflix and Amazon Prime Video that have been on for several seasons. While the networks rely on ad revenue, so don’t have that kind of time, they should be promoting new shows they believe in throughout the year and heavily promote the fact that viewers can catch up with recent episodes and previous seasons, which are available to stream on demand. Stop treating good shows as lost causes if viewers haven’t found them during their first few weeks on the air.
There’s no law that says broadcast ratings have to decline every year or that most new shows will fail. To paraphrase a famous playwright, “the fault lies not in their stars, but in themselves.”
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