There have been 33 theatrical films released as part of the Marvel Cinematic Universe (MCU), which began in 2008 with the debut of Iron Man. The bulk of these movies feature The Avengers or individual members of that team, as well as popular characters such as Spider-Man, Black Panther, and Doctor Strange. Guardians of the Galaxy, with its distinct sense of humor, premiered in the middle of the Avengers craze and became a surprise hit – the only one at the time not to feature the well-known lineup of Marvel heroes.
Television shows set in the Marvel Cinematic Universe (MCU) are based on characters appearing in Marvel comics who have a shared reality with the theatrical film franchises. Nine such TV series were produced for Disney+ between 2021 and 2023 (with one more debuting at the end of November). At least four more are planned through 2025.
So, the latest film in the MCU franchise, The Marvels, has not lived up to industry expectations, and press headlines widely peg it as a flop. This is the second recent so-called failure, as it joins Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania with the dreaded “flop” designation. Rumors abound that a desperate Disney is considering resurrecting popular heroes such as Iron Man and Captain America (and maybe even Black Widow). Events in the second season of Disney+’s Loki seem to make that possible. Whether or not that would happen, and whether they could even lure the stars to reprise their roles, remains to be seen.
Let’s take a look at why The Marvels did not draw the anticipated opening weekend box office, and what that might mean going forward.
The promos were terrible. I was actually planning to see. The Marvels on opening weekend, but when I saw the promos I decided to wait until it hits Disney+. The TV trailers I saw had little dialogue, were all special effects, jumped between scenes so quickly, I could barely make out who the heroes or villains were. There was nothing in the promos that generated any interest in me paying to see it.
The writers’ and actors’ strikes prevented any of the movie’s stars from the normal pre-opening publicity tours – red carpet premieres, talk shows, or comic cons. Brie Larson, who plays Captain Marvel, went on The Tonight Show the night the movie hit theaters – and she was there to simultaneously promote her Apple TV+ series, Lessons in Chemistry, which may have diluted the impact on The Marvels.
The first Captain Marvel movie debuted at the height of Avengers-mania, being released in 2019, sandwiched between Avengers: Infinity War and Endgame (in which she appeared). It earned a worldwide box office of more than $1 billion (more than $150 million domestic opening weekend), compared to the current movie’s $47 million domestic opening weekend. Of course, the pandemic has had a long-lasting impact on moviegoing habits. Pre-pandemic, my wife and I saw about 10 movies a year in theaters. Since then, I don’t think we’ve been to more than three in a year.
It should be also be noted that the first Captain America and Thor movies in 2011 each only managed a $65 million domestic opening weekend. The first Ant-Man movie generated $57 million during its opening weekend. Still, it’s hard to put a positive spin on The Marvel’s performance – although the headlines proclaiming Disney’s doom and the end of superhero movies are vastly overstated.
Despite the pandemic and subsequent trend of streaming theatrical movies way ahead of previously normal windows, TV shows and theatrical movies are not interchangeable. Even the best Disney+ TV shows, including Ms. Marvel, were designed as TV shows, not Avengers-style blockbuster movies. Most heavy Marvel moviegoers did not see Ms. Marvel, and even those who did were not going to pay to see her as one of the leads in a theatrical movie (after seeing her for free on television).
You can’t just add Nick Fury (Samuel L. Jackson) and expect everyone to flock to the theater. Secondary and more obscure Marvel characters can work well for a TV series, where word-of-mouth (or social media) can create a hit, and viewers have ample time to discover a new show. But they don’t work so well when the all-important opening weekend requires a strong initial movie attendance.
Wonder Woman is an icon, and historically popular among women and men. Black Widow became popular through numerous Iron Man and Avengers movies (as a co-star). But men and boys, the driving force for Marvel movie attendance, aren’t crazy about the Captain Marvel character – or superhero movies exclusively starring women. Women and families will go to superhero movies, typically at the request of their male family members. Whenever there was a new Avengers or Spider-Man movie, I would tell my wife I wanted to see it, and she would gladly come along (and usually enjoyed them). But she was never the one who suggested we see them Wonder Woman being a key exception). So if men aren’t intent on seeing a new Marvel movie, it generally will not do well.
Since Avengers: Endgame, virtually all Marvel movies have been weak on characterization and heavy on special effects. Marvel had spent years building the character interactions and backstories for stories about members of The Avengers. People went to these movies largely because they became familiar with the characters and wanted to see their new adventures – special effects and cinematic battles were a bonus, not their reason for being.
When I evaluate TV shows, I often point out that “Shows make stars, stars don’t make shows.” But for theatrical movies, which cost a significant amount of money these days for families to attend, stars help put fannies in the seats. Major popular stars who have portrayed various Marvel characters include, Robert Downey Jr. (Iron Man), Chris Evans (Captain America), Scarlett Johansson (Black Widow), Mark Ruffalo (Hulk), Chris Hemsworth (Thor), Benedict Cumberbatch (Doctor Strange), Tom Holland (Spider-Man), and the late Chadwick Boseman (Black Panther).
We also need to keep in mind that there is a considerable amount of review bombing for Marvel series featuring female leads. Just as an example none of the pre-2022 TV series had even 3% of reviews getting on IMDb just 1-star The Ms. Marvel Disney+ series, which was largely praised by critics, was at 20% (She-Hulk had a remarkable 32% of its premiere reviews being 1-star). Not so coincidentally, both have female stars, both can be labeled as comedies, and both are substantially different from anything Marvel has done before. I’m sure there was a significant amount of this going on for The Marvels as well. She-Hulk actually mocks these internet trolls in a plotline that has a secret organization (of mostly white men) and a website devoted to complaining about the existence of superheroes like her.
Going forward, this seems to be a post-pandemic non-Thanos related blip. The current second season of Loki on Disney+ is both a critical and viewing success. The upcoming Echo should do just fine and next season’s Daredevil: Born Again is sure to be a hit. On the feature film front, Deadpool 3 (which reportedly will include Hugh Jackman playing Wolverine one last time), and the rebooting of the Fantastic Four and X-Men franchises could generate new excitement. Much will also depend on the public’s willingness to accept Anthony Mackie (the Falcon) as the new Captain America in Captain America: Brave New World (slated for a 2025 release), and how it ties in to a new Avengers team. There’s also another Spider-Man movie, a new version of Blade (starring Mahershala Ali). Thunderbolts, the MCU’s version of Suicide Squad, will be in theaters in 2025.
So I wouldn’t write off the Marvel Cinematic Universe just yet.
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